New research from the Chartered Institute of Housing (CIH) has revealed that the UK government is projected to miss its 1.5 million homes target by up to 25%
Published as part of its UK Housing Review Autumn Briefing 2025, CIH said that the government’s ambition to build 1.5 million new homes during the current parliament was “stretching and welcome”, but it was falling behind on delivery based on data captured by Capital Economics, JLL, and Savills.
“Forecasts indicate that output could fall around 25 per cent short of the target, with construction capacity, planning delays, and financial constraints all contributing factors,” CIH stated.
Even with increased funding of £39 million through the Social and Affordable Homes Programme and the creation of the National Housing Bank, CIH said that both the private and social sectors were “struggling to expand delivery while meeting higher quality and safety standards”.
As senior policy adviser at the CIH, John Perry, explained, “grant-funded starts and completions increased significantly in 2024/25,” but this would only lead to 70,000 new homes annually in the social sector over the next three years. It was a “welcome improvement but insufficient to fill the gap created by the private sector’s slow recovery”.
As reported by The Times and BBC News earlier this month, the Home Builders Federation (HBF) wrote to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) warning that the government’s 1.5 million homes target was “too optimistic”. It follows an OBR forecast from March 2025 that estimated 1.3 million new homes being built by 2029/30.
Spokesperson for HBF, Steve Turner, said: "Whilst the planning reforms overseen by ministers last year are very positive, government also continues to oversee increases in policy costs and taxes on new homes, making many sites unviable.
"We need to see a reversal of these additional burdens and action to support first-time buyers in a market that they are increasingly frozen out of.
"It is the first time in decades there is no government support scheme in place to help people buy a home, and the suppressed level of effective demand is preventing builders investing in sites to build the homes the country needs."
The Ministry of Housing, Communities, and Local Government (MHCLG) responded to media coverage of this issue, stating that it had been clear from the outset that this target, whilst “stretching”, was still achievable. It added that it “remained confident in its plans” and would continue working closely with the OBR and sector experts to “monitor delivery and adapt as needed”.
A MHCLG spokesperson said: “We will leave no stone unturned to build the 1.5 million homes this country desperately needs and restore the dream of homeownership.
“On top of the major planning changes we have already introduced to get developers building and our huge £39 billion investment in social and affordable housing, we are going further and faster to accelerate reforms and bring about the biggest era of housebuilding in our country’s history.”